India exports to the US defy tariff pressure
India exports to the United States kept growing in the first half of 2026-27, rising 11.1 per cent to $50.81 billion during April to September, up from $45.73 billion in the same period a year earlier. The rise in India exports to America came despite tariff-related uncertainty and a wave of protectionist measures from Washington. At the same time, India’s commercial relationship with China moved in the opposite direction: shipments to Beijing surged, but imports surged faster, pushing the bilateral trade deficit past the $100 billion mark.
The monthly numbers tell a story of resilience. Merchandise exports rose 23 per cent year on year in September 2026 to $44.40 billion, and shipments to the United States grew 11 per cent in the same month. August was even stronger, with exports to America climbing about 21 per cent to $8.32 billion from $6.83 billion a year earlier. Total India exports, including services, touched an estimated $80.75 billion in September, while imports stood at $94.05 billion and the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $30.21 billion. The September figures marked one of the strongest monthly performances of the year for the country’s external sector.
Economists say demand for Indian goods in the American market remains firm, particularly for labour-intensive products where India holds a cost edge. Some argue the country is not heavily dependent on any single market: shipments to alternative destinations are reportedly expanding at 20 to 25 per cent, faster than the 10 to 15 per cent growth to the United States. The Netherlands, France, Britain, the United Arab Emirates and several Latin American markets have been identified as destinations where India exports to the US could be redirected if tariffs worsen. There were weak spots too. Exports of gems and jewellery, textiles and auto components to America fell as higher tariffs bit, though exporters managed to regain ground in other markets.
The China gap keeps widening
India exports to China jumped 40.7 per cent to $19.26 billion in the first nine months of 2026, but imports from China climbed to $125.19 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $105.93 billion. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told an Atlantic Council session in Bangkok that China’s non-tariff barriers are the biggest obstacle to balanced trade, singling out phytosanitary rules she said were being applied in ways that block Indian shipments such as generic medicines, beef and vegetables. She stressed that India has avoided retaliatory trade measures and prefers negotiation.
The imbalance highlights a structural problem. India’s manufacturing exports depend heavily on Chinese industrial inputs and components, which makes the deficit hard to shrink quickly. Rising import bills for crude oil and fertilisers have also put pressure on the rupee, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars and tighten currency-derivative rules to steady the market.
What is driving India exports resilience
Two forces are at work. First, India exports now span more products and more destinations than before, cushioning tariff shocks in any single market. Second, sectors such as electronics and smartphones are booming, reshaping the export basket beyond traditional labour-intensive goods. Negotiations for a trade agreement with the United States are reportedly progressing towards an early conclusion, which could stabilise the tariff environment exporters have had to navigate.
What exporters must watch next
The immediate risk is policy, not demand. Washington has threatened tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries buying Russian crude, and while some Russia-related sanctions have been waived, the threat environment remains volatile. The commerce ministry is meanwhile tracking shipment data closely to spot tariff-hit segments early. Exporters in those segments will need to keep diversifying, while New Delhi presses its case for market access in Beijing and a fairer deal with Washington. If the current momentum holds, the resilience of India exports could become one of the defining economic stories of the decade.