A weather system over the Bay of Bengal is likely to strengthen into Cyclone Senyar in the coming days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said, putting Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on alert. A low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and the south Andaman Sea is expected to intensify into a depression over the south Andaman Sea within 24 hours, and then into a cyclonic storm within 48 hours. If the system reaches cyclonic storm strength, it will be named Cyclone Senyar, a name contributed by the United Arab Emirates meaning “lion”. It would be the second cyclone over the Bay of Bengal this season. The system is forming over warm waters that favour rapid strengthening, the IMD has said, and the department is tracking it closely.
The system is moving west-northwest across the Bay of Bengal. The IMD expects it to become a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 24 November and to strengthen into Cyclone Senyar around 26 November. The system might then move close to the Tamil Nadu coast between 29 and 30 November, raising the prospect of heavy to very heavy rainfall along coastal districts. The exact landfall point has not been confirmed, and the IMD has said it is too early to predict where the system will come ashore.
Cyclone Senyar rainfall warnings for Tamil Nadu
The IMD has issued rainfall warnings for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands ahead of Cyclone Senyar. Tamil Nadu may see heavy to very heavy rainfall from 25 to 27 November, with another active phase from 28 to 30 November. The Regional Meteorological Centre in Chennai has issued a yellow alert for the city, and orange alerts for Tenkasi and Tirunelveli, where extremely heavy rainfall is likely, especially in hilly areas.
Heavy rain is expected in Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi and Ramanathapuram on 25 November. By 26 November, rainfall coverage is projected to widen to seven districts. On 27 November, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur and Nagapattinam may see a sharp rise in rainfall as Cyclone Senyar moves closer to land. Thanjavur, Tiruvarur and Nagapattinam are under an orange alert on 28 November, and very heavy rain is forecast across seven northern coastal districts on 29 November.
Fishermen warned as Cyclone Senyar approaches
Fishermen have been barred from entering the Andaman Sea and the southwest Bay of Bengal until 25 November, and the southeast Bay of Bengal remains off limits until 28 November, because of strong winds and rough seas. The IMD expects isolated very heavy rainfall in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from 22 to 27 November, with squally winds of 40 to 50 kmph. Authorities have urged people in low-lying and flood-prone areas to stay alert, avoid non-essential travel and prepare for strong winds and waterlogging. The warnings apply to the sea areas off the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.
How the IMD will track the system
The IMD is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, and it will track Cyclone Senyar with bulletins issued at set intervals. Its bulletins are the main source of cyclone warnings for countries around the bay, and its forecasts are updated as the system develops. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the department will issue bulletins every six hours once the system becomes a depression, and every three hours after it turns into a cyclone. Tamil Nadu is already seeing widespread rain as the northeast monsoon strengthens, and the city and several southern districts have had continuous showers over the past 24 hours.
The system could still take one of two paths. Cyclone Senyar may approach the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coastline, or it could turn northwards before heading towards another region. The IMD will issue sharper updates over the next 48 hours as the system strengthens. Until then, the warnings for Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh stay in place.