The market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs in China, India and Brazil could grow to $22 billion by 2035, up from $6.6 billion now, as improving affordability and wider access drive adoption, J.P. Morgan has estimated.
Analysts led by Yang Huang said in a note on Friday that the GLP-1 addressable market could expand at an annual rate of 15 percent through 2035, given the large diabetes and obesity burdens in the three countries. At that pace, the market would more than triple in size over the coming decade.
GLP-1 drugs move beyond rich markets
In the note, the analysts wrote: “GLP-1 is transitioning from a developed-market growth theme to a broader global access story.” The comment captures the shift the bank sees: drugs that were first taken up in the United States and Europe are now finding a much larger patient base in emerging economies.
GLP-1 drugs include Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, among the most sought-after medicines for weight-loss and diabetes treatment in the world. J.P. Morgan argues the next phase of growth will come from countries where only a tiny fraction of patients has had access to these treatments so far.
The three countries in the bank’s estimate carry an enormous share of the world’s diabetes burden. China and India account for more than 25 percent and 15 percent of global diagnosed diabetes cases respectively, together over 40 percent of the world total, while about 12 percent of Brazilian adults have diabetes.
What is driving GLP-1 demand in China and India
Obesity trends point the same way. China’s overweight and obese population could exceed 65 percent by 2030, and India’s adult obesity rate is projected to reach 11 percent by 2035. The combination of rising obesity and vast diabetes patient pools gives the three markets a scale that developed markets cannot match.
The analysts added: “With patent cliffs, generic launches and policy-engineered price cuts now improving GLP-1 affordability, the three markets are converging on the same destination.” Patent expiries will open the door to cheaper generic versions, while governments in the three countries have been pushing prices down through policy measures.
Affordability has been the main barrier so far. GLP-1 penetration stands below 0.1 percent in China and under 0.2 percent in India, compared with 4 to 5 percent in the United States. That gap is precisely what makes the growth forecast so large: even a small rise in adoption across populations of this size translates into billions of dollars in sales.
The growth math shows why the bank is bullish. A 15 percent annual growth rate sustained through 2035 would take the $6.6 billion market past $22 billion, roughly tripling it in nine years. The estimate assumes that patent expiries, generic launches and policy-led price cuts keep making the drugs cheaper, and that adoption keeps broadening beyond the small base it starts from.
GLP-1 outlook: China to overtake Brazil by 2027
J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil as the largest of the three markets by 2027. By 2035, it sees the Chinese market reaching $13.7 billion against $8 billion for Brazil. India’s growth, the bank said, is held back by affordability concerns and hesitancy around injectable drugs.
The $13.7 billion estimate for China would make it the dominant piece of the $22 billion total, with Brazil and India making up the rest. The bank’s numbers assume that price cuts and generic launches continue to bring the drugs within reach of middle-income patients.
Stocks in focus as access widens
The analysts flagged a handful of stocks as beneficiaries of the trend: China’s Innovent, India’s Divi’s Laboratories and Torrent Pharmaceuticals, and Brazil’s RD Saude.
At $6.6 billion today, the combined market of the three countries would need to more than triple to reach the $22 billion estimate by 2035. J.P. Morgan’s call is that improving affordability and broader access will drive that growth, as the drugs shift from a developed-market story to a global one.