Voters in Alberta have decisively rejected the Alberta referendum proposal that could have opened a legal path to a future vote on leaving Canada, in a major victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney and supporters of national unity.
About 76 percent chose to stay in Canada while 24 percent backed beginning the constitutional process needed for a subsequent binding referendum on independence, according to preliminary results reported Monday, Oct. 19.
The nonbinding Alberta referendum did not decide independence directly. It asked whether the provincial government should begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote. It was the province’s first-ever independence vote on sovereignty.
What the Alberta referendum was about
The Alberta referendum was first announced in May after a group of Albertans petitioned officials for a vote on independence. Premier Danielle Smith said the vote was necessary to respect the roughly 300,000 Albertans who had signed the petition, even though polls showed only about one-third of Albertans supported independence.
After provincial courts blocked a petition for an immediate independence vote, Smith put the question on a multi-question ballot. Voters answered 10 separate questions, covering the path to a future independence referendum as well as immigration, provincial powers, health care, education and voter identification. Preliminary results showed voters supported eight of the nine other measures.
The Alberta referendum drew heavy turnout: advance and mail-in voting alone drew nearly 1.3 million ballots, about 43 percent of eligible voters. Long queues formed, more than 100 stations extended their hours, and official results are due Oct. 29.
Carney and Smith react to the result
On his way into a cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning, Carney called the result a “great day.”
“I’m thrilled that Albertans have chosen unity. They’ve chosen to build together. They’ve chosen to continue to take care of each other, to move forward together with purpose,” he said.
Carney said in a Tuesday statement that voters had made a “clear choice” in favor of unity, adding that “Canada is greater than the sum of its parts.” He had campaigned for the remain side, calling separation at a Calgary rally “a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division,” and warning at an earlier Edmonton rally against using the ballot to send Ottawa a message.
Smith, the United Conservative Party premier who opposes independence, called the vote under pressure from the separatist wing of her party. She said she was pleased with the results and that “Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada.” She voted to remain herself but allowed legislators to take the other side, and she has said she would not hold another vote while in office.
The Alberta referendum campaign exposed fresh divisions among Alberta’s separatists and conservatives.
First Nations groups turned out in strong numbers for the remain side; one polling station in an area home to the Siksika Nation temporarily ran out of ballots, local media reported.
Why the Alberta referendum happened
Alberta, home to 5.1 million people and the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, has long had a contentious relationship with Canada’s federal government. Supporters of independence say Alberta could be wealthier outside Canada, pointing to the belief that it gives more to Ottawa than it gets back and to oil and gas restrictions that they say hurt the economy. Critics, including Carney, say those grievances can be addressed within Canada and that independence would bring economic turmoil.
The Alberta referendum also unfolded as Carney faces a trade war with the United States, amid higher U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestions of annexing Canada, including his remark that it could become the 51st U.S. state. Researchers have pointed to possible Russian and U.S. online influence campaigns that amplified the call for separation and shared misleading information. Smith told the media in August that the online activity was under observation. The Alberta referendum result gave Carney a political boost amid the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.
Alberta referendum defeat may not end the separatist push
Separatist leaders made clear they had no intention of abandoning their cause. Jeffrey Rath, leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project, said at a watch party in Edmonton that the push for independence would “absolutely continue.”
“We’ve been educating Albertans on the benefits of independence, and we’re continuing to move forward,” Rath told reporters.
Cory Morgan, founder of the advocacy group Pathway to Independence, said the result did not mean the end of the movement. “A great base of support for independence has been fostered which isn’t going away,” he wrote on X. Before the vote, he had told Al Jazeera: “I would respect the will of the voters. If they’ve decided it’s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop.”