Sensex today points to a flat to slightly lower open on Friday 13 November, after a week in which the market ground higher in small steps. The Nifty 50 closed Thursday at 25,299.35, up 44.30 points or 0.18 percent, and the Sensex closed at 81,911.01, up 31.61 points or 0.04 percent, a third straight session of gains. The gains were small, and the market spent much of the day moving in a narrow range, with buyers and sellers in balance for most of the session. Traders now look to the open for a sign of whether the run can stretch to a fourth session, or whether the market pauses after three days of gains.
GIFT Nifty was trading around 25,254.50 in early trade on Friday, pointing to a flat to slightly negative open. Other reports put the level at 25,226.00, down 0.19 percent, and at 25,232, down 0.17 percent. The three readings differ in detail and agree in direction, and they point to an open near Thursday’s close. For Sensex today, the early signal is often read as a guide rather than a call, and traders wait for the cash market to open before they judge the day, watching the first hour of trade for the tone.
Sensex today: inflation sets the tone
October CPI inflation rose to 6.09 percent from 5.54 percent in September, above the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit of 6 percent. The inflation shock is the main weight on Sensex today, and it has put rate cuts further out of reach for now. Brent crude was trading below $96 on Friday morning after rising about 3.3 percent in the previous session. Other reports put it above $95, at $95.14, after US President Donald Trump said he would not hesitate to resume military strikes on Iran. The rise in crude adds to the pressure from inflation, and it has given traders a second reason to pause after the recent rise in shares.
US 10-year Treasury yields were around 5.12 percent, a level that keeps pressure on money flowing to emerging markets. Overnight, the Dow fell 189.40 points, or 0.36 percent, to 52,297.09, the S and P 500 lost 0.35 percent to 7,592.40 and the Nasdaq lost 0.39 percent to 25,366.09. The falls in New York were modest, and they followed a run in which US shares had risen. The global mood feeds into Sensex today through the overnight close, and Indian traders will read the US falls as one more sign for the open, along with the crude price and the inflation reading. Sensex today will take its cue from the US close and from the crude price when trading starts in Mumbai.
What Sensex today traders are watching
Bank Nifty surged 1.19 percent to 61,518.50 on Thursday, the top sector performer, and banks led the small gains of the day. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Rs 7,830.60 crore on 12 November, offsetting domestic institutional selling of Rs 6,331.17 crore. The buying by foreign funds has been the main support for the market through November, and Thursday was no different for Sensex today. The flow kept the indices in positive ground even as the broader market moved little, and it has kept the Nifty near its recent highs through the week.
Nifty resistance is seen around 25,400 to 25,500, a band the index has to clear before traders talk of a fresh leg higher. For Sensex today, the close will be judged against that band and against the flow of foreign money through the day, and against the crude price as it trades. The levels to watch are the GIFT Nifty open, the crude price and the rupee, and the buying by foreign funds after Thursday’s net purchase of Rs 7,830.60 crore. This is a market outlook, not investment advice. The Sensex closed Thursday at 81,911.01, up 31.61 points, and the Nifty closed at 25,299.35, up 44.30 points.