Indian shares look set for a quiet start on Thursday, 12 November, after a strong session that took both main indices to their highest closes since February. The Sensex today is expected to open flat to a little lower, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a muted beginning. At 7.01 am, GIFT Nifty traded at 25,238.50, which was 16.55 points below the Nifty 50 close of 25,255.05.
The previous session ended with solid gains. The Nifty 50 rose 210.40 points, or 0.84 per cent, to 25,255.05 on 11 November, while the Sensex added 772.75 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 81,879.40. Both indices recorded their highest closing levels since 26 February. The Sensex had touched an intraday high of 82,520.40 and a low of 81,417.39 during the session, and profit booking appeared at the higher levels. The Sensex today opens from those levels after the strongest session in weeks.
Sensex today: what the early signals say
Global cues are mixed. United States shares closed higher in the previous session, with the Nasdaq up 1.60 per cent at 25,466.19, the S&P 500 up 1.31 per cent at 7,619.38 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.49 per cent at 52,486.49. Asian markets were mixed in early trade on 12 November, and tech shares stayed volatile. The Sensex today will take its lead from those cues and from foreign flows, crude oil and the earnings due during the day.
Foreign buying stayed strong on 11 November, with foreign portfolio investors buying Indian equities worth Rs 12,563.33 crore, according to exchange data. That flow has been the main support for the market through November. Crude oil stayed below its recent levels in early trade on 12 November, and the Sensex today will track it through the session. Brent crude traded at $91.85 a barrel, down 0.65 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.86 per cent to $86.13 a barrel at 7.02 am.
Levels to watch in the Sensex today
Technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 to try for the 25,300 to 25,400 range, and the Sensex today will follow the same test. Immediate support sits at 25,100 to 25,000, with resistance at 25,300 to 25,400 and major resistance at 25,400 to 25,500. A clear break above 25,400 to 25,500 could open a move towards 25,900 to 26,000. On the downside, 25,000 and 24,800 remain the levels to watch. The Hindu BusinessLine day trading guide put Nifty futures at 25,235 and advised going long on dips at 25,160 and 25,110 with a stop-loss at 25,020.
Bank Nifty is the other index to watch for the Sensex today. It reached 61,394 on Wednesday, and that level is now the immediate resistance, with 61,400 the next mark. Bulls will want the index to stay above 60,000 if the market pauses. The index came within 400 points of its previous record high during the session, and its strength has come from broad buying across banking shares.
Earnings lined up for 12 November
A busy earnings calendar will drive stock-specific moves in the Sensex today. Hindustan Aeronautics, Oil India, NMDC, Vodafone Idea, Ola Electric Mobility, Alkem Laboratories, Amber Enterprises, Manappuram Finance, Bharat Dynamics, Page Industries, Rail Vikas Nigam and IRCTC are all due to report September-quarter results during the day. Their numbers could move shares across defence, oil and gas, telecom, metals, consumer goods, railways, hospitality and industrials.
The Union Cabinet has approved fertiliser subsidy rates for the Rabi season, with the estimated outlay rising to Rs 62,370 crore. The decision affects farm input costs and will be watched by fertiliser and farm-linked shares. It is one of the domestic announcements in focus alongside the earnings calendar.
Global cues and crude oil
Analysts urged caution after the sharp gains. Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Neo, said the preferred approach would be to book some profit on existing long positions if the market opens between 25,300 and 25,500, and to look for buying chances on dips. He said the Nifty and the Sensex could extend the move towards 25,500 and 82,700, but the reward for chasing prices at those levels was less attractive.
VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the rise in United States inflation and the coming rate rises by the Federal Reserve had pushed the 10-year United States bond yield back to 5 per cent. He said that, along with profit booking by domestic institutions, would restrain the rally a bit. The Sensex today opens with those cross-currents in play: strong foreign buying and earnings on one side, and high United States yields and profit booking on the other.