Obamacare premiums will rise by an average of 13 percent in 2027, according to an analysis released on Friday, 30 October, by KFF, the health research group. The New York Times reported the finding, which combines newly released federal pricing data with figures from individual states. The rise adds to an earlier steep increase, and it lands as open enrollment for Obamacare plans opens on Sunday, 1 November, two days before the midterm elections on 3 November.
The Trump administration published proposed 2027 prices on Friday for 30 states that use marketplaces run by the federal government. KFF combined those figures with state-level data to reach the nationwide average of 13 percent. A government fact sheet about Obamacare open enrollment published shortly after the data release did not mention the increase, the Times reported, but it noted that three-quarters of customers with subsidies can still find plans for less than 50 dollars a month. The average figure hides wide variation by state, insurer and plan, and what any one household pays will depend on income, age, location and subsidy eligibility.
Why Obamacare premiums are rising again
Higher medical costs sit at the centre of the increase. KFF said the underlying cost of medical care and prescription drugs rose by 10 percent for 2027, above the average growth of about 8 percent in recent years. Insurers cited rising hospital prices, doctor visits and drug costs, along with a workforce under pressure and patients needing more intense care. Demand for costly specialty medicines and for weight-loss drugs known as GLP-1s also pushed costs up, according to the earlier KFF review of insurer filings.
Policy changes added to the pressure. Enhanced tax credits that helped people pay for Obamacare coverage during the pandemic expired at the end of 2025, after Congress allowed them to lapse. KFF found that the expiry led to a 58 percent increase in average out-of-pocket premium costs in 2026 and deductibles about 1,000 dollars higher per person. Insurers estimated that the changing mix of enrollees, as healthier people left Obamacare, drove premiums up by about 4 percentage points in 2026 and will do so again in 2027. New enrollment rules from the Trump administration, aimed at what officials describe as fraud, were also cited by insurers as a factor that makes enrollment harder.
Who Obamacare price rises hit hardest
People who do not qualify for subsidies face the full increase. That group includes households with incomes at or above 400 percent of the federal poverty level, about 63,000 dollars a year for a single person or about 129,000 dollars for a family of four. About 10 percent of marketplace customers are older people earning more than about 63,840 dollars, a group made up largely of self-employed workers, the Times reported. Many in that group already faced premium increases of more than 1,000 dollars a month in 2026, and the 2027 rise comes on top of that jump.
Enrollment has already fallen sharply. Obamacare enrollment dropped from 22.1 million people in 2025 to 19.2 million in 2026, according to Department of Health and Human Services estimates cited in later KFF coverage, a fall of about 2.9 million. Enrollment fell in 49 states, with New Mexico as the exception, after the state used its own money to fill part of the federal funding gap. Fewer and sicker enrollees leave insurers with higher average costs, and higher costs in turn push more healthy people out, a cycle that KFF analysts flagged in their review of the filings.
How the Obamacare 2027 figures compare with earlier forecasts
The 13 percent average for 2027 follows a larger jump in 2026. KFF put the median finalized increase for 2026 at 20 percent, after a median proposed increase of 18 percent. An earlier KFF review of preliminary 2027 filings, covering 77 insurers in 16 states and Washington, D.C., put the median proposed increase at 14 percent, with 20 insurers seeking rises of more than 20 percent and none proposing a cut. The October analysis, which used fuller pricing data, put the nationwide average at 13 percent, a slightly lower figure that still marks a second straight year of double-digit rises.
Premiums for employer-sponsored plans, which cover about 150 million people, are projected to rise by about 10 percent in 2027, the Times reported. That comparison matters because Obamacare serves people who buy their own cover, often without an employer to share the cost. Open enrollment for Obamacare plans runs from 1 November to 15 January 2027 in states using the federal marketplace, and state-run marketplaces set their own end dates within the same season. Shoppers who already have cover will be renewed into a plan for 2027 unless they choose a different one, and the new prices will apply from January.